Professor Qiu Xiaohua discusses “The Chinese Economy: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow” at MUST

Outstanding Chinese Economist, Professor Qiu Xiaohua, gave a speech at MUST

Professor Qiu Xiaohua, famous economist in China, and chief economist of Minsheng Securities and Huaxing Bank, former chief of the National Bureau of Statistics, delivered a speech on “The Chinese Economy: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow” on March 24, 2017 at Macau University of Science and Technology. This is one of the Serial Lectures of “Famous Economist / Management Scholars” organized by the School of Business at MUST.

The lecture attracted more than 300 audiences including guests from Department of Economics of the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government in the Macau Special Administrative Region, Macau SAR Monetary Authority, Macao Trade and Investment Promotion Institute, The Bank of China Macau Branch, The Macau China Thinktank for FinTech Industries, The University of Macau, The City University of Macau, and MUST students and faculty members. Professor Qiu's two-hour lecture was rich in content and warmly received by the audience. The lecture was sponsored by the Macao Foundation.

Professor Qiu first reviewed the “past phase” on China’s economic development between the Reform and Opening-Up and the first decade of this century, he summed up the characteristic of China’s economic development between 1978 and 2010 as “rapid”, which was reflected in the average annual growth rate of nearly 10% of the total economy, 16 % of international trade, 20% of manufacturing and 7% of the income level of residents. He believed that the rapid economic development of China in this era benefited from the positive interactions of domestic and international factors.

Regarding the issues facing the Chinese economy today, Professor Qiu believed that it was due to the structural changes of both the internal and external environment. Concerning internal environment, China has transformed from a market of scarcity to a market of excesses, the low-cost advantage has disappeared, while the problems of resources, environment, local debts and aging society have become evident, hindering our capability to grow. In terms of external environment, the staggering world economy and the disrupted world order, together with a protectionist sentiment replacing the globalization trend, have resulted in a hostile external environment, as opposed to the friendly ambience in the past years. These factors have limited the development of the Chinese economy.

Concerning the prospects of the Chinese economy, Professor Qiu thought that the pattern of the development of Chinese economy would be “L-shaped” with a bottom but not rise in the coming few years, while the medium-term growth rate would diminish and the pressure would not be reduced. But he believed that the corresponding response capacity would change with uncertain environment.

Lastly, Professor Qiu predicted that the reform of the market economy and the opening-up, as well as the inherent tenacity of the Chinese people and the strong and effective leadership of the Chinese government, would push Chinese economy to the “next step” of the continuing development.