July 8, 2016
On July 8, 2016, Macau University of Science and Technology (M.U.S.T.) released the survey results of the “2016 Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of Macao ”, which has been the 31st consecutive quarter for M.U.S.T. to conduct the survey since it first launched the CCI in January of 2009. The survey is sponsored by the Macao Foundation and executed by the Institute for Sustainable Development of M.U.S.T.. People who are involved in the research include project host Prof. Chan Lai Kow, Director of the Institute for Sustainable Development, M.U.S.T., Associate Prof. Liu Cheng Kun of School of Business, M.U.S.T., and Project Coordinator Antony, Chu Sam Iong, Institute for Sustainable Development, M.U.S.T..
The “Consumer Confidence Index” comprehensively reflects and quantifies the individual consumers’opinions on the strengths and weaknesses of the current economic trends. The index addresses the subjective feelings of the consumers for the societal economy, employment, prices of commodities, family expenditures, stocks, and purchase of daily necessities in the present time and future three months, and is therefore often used as precedent indicators to predict the economic development and consumer trends.
From June 6 to 13, 2016, the Institute for Sustainable Development of M.U.S.T. employed its telephone interview system, used the computer to carry out random sampling, and successfully conducted interviews with 1,018 Macau residents who are eighteen years old or above. The interviewees scored on a scale of 1 to 200 marks; scores lower than 100 indicate “with insufficient confidence”, and scores larger than 100 indicate “with confidence”. The grading criteria of the index questionnaire are made in accordance with the comments on the questionnaire questions by the interviewees.
Press release for the “2016 Macao Consumer Confidence Index – the 2nd Quarter”
The index for the 2nd quarter of the 2016 Macao Consumer Confidence Index is 82.56. In accordance with relevant standards, this quarter’s index has declined by 1.72% in comparison to that of last quarter (84.00).
(1) The “local economy” sub-index (85.80) carried on the trend of last quarter, continuing to fall.
For the first quarter of 2016, Macau’s economy retracted annually by 13.3%, mainly due to the continuous fall of services export and reduction of investment. Export of services dropped annually by 13.7%, particularly, export of gaming services dropped by 17.1%.
Based on previous surveys, consumers’ confidence in local economy has sustained above 100 (indicating “with confidence”) for 22 consecutive quarters since the 3rd quarter of 2009; starting from the 1st quarter of 2015, the “local economy” sub-index has all been lower than 100 (indicating “with insufficient confidence”), and started to go through a continuous fall since the 4th quarter of 2014, which did not get stabilized until the 4th quarter of 2015. Entering 2016, the sub-index fell continuously for two quarters, indicating the increasing pessimistic emotions of the consumers toward the macro economy.
(2) The “employment” sub-index (94.96) continued to decline, being no longer the highest score-holder of all the sub-indexes.
From March to May 2016, Macau’s unemployment rate is 1.9%, and the insufficient employment rate is 0.5%; both indexes remain the same as last term (February to April).
Based on previous surveys, the “employment” sub-index of the 3rd quarter of 2015 drew to an end of the “with confidence (i.e. larger than 100)” trend, which had sustained for 20 consecutive quarters since the 3rd quarter of 2010, and, however, had an improvement in the 4th quarter of 2015. However, for this quarter, it dropped again and has stopped being the highest score-holder among all the sub-indexes, indicating the increasing pessimistic emotions of consumers toward the prospect of employment.
(3) The “commodity price” sub-index (75.06) basically remains unchanged.
For May of 2016, the overall consumption commodity price index (108.17) increased by 2.64% by year, and 0.14% by month.
(4) The “housing purchase” sub-index (68.31) continued to fall.
For the 1st quarter of 2016, the average price for per m2 usable floor area of residence fell by 4.2% by quarter; the average housing price for 2015 fell by 13.0% by year.
The consumers’ “housing purchase” confidence sub-index did not get to sustain the rising trend of last quarter; in calculation for the six sub-indexes of the overall index, “housing purchase” remained as the lowest-confidence index of all, as was the case for the past 31 quarters, indicating the Macau residents’ worries about housing purchase throughout the years.
(5) Based on the results of a cross analysis with respect to the backgrounds of the interviewees, some different changes emerged in comparison to past years.
(a) With respect to educational background, the highest-confidence sub-index for people whose highest education are either primary school or lower or middle school is “life standards”, the highest-confidence sub-index for people who went to college or above is “employment”; the lowest sub-index for people who went as high as to primary or lower or middle school is “housing purchase”, and the lowest sub-index for people who went to college or above is “commodity price”;
(b) With respect to income, people whose incomes fall under such four categories as $0~$4,999，$5,000~$9,999，$10,000~$14,999 and $15,000~$19,999 have the highest confidence in the “life standards” sub-index; people whose incomes are equal to or over $20,000 have the highest confidence in the “employment” sub-index; people of all income categories have the lowest confidence in the “housing purchase” sub-index.
(c) With respect to age groups, people of age groups as 18~19, 30~39, and 40~49 have the highest confidence in the “employment” sub-index, people of age groups as 20~29, 50~59, and 60 or above have the highest confidence in the “life standards” sub-index; people of 18~19, 20~29, 40~49, 50~59, and 60 or above have the lowest confidence in the “housing purchase” sub-index, and people of 30~39 have the lowest confidence in the “commodity price” sub-index. Such are points that need attention by people of all fields of the society.
In general, for this quarter, the overall confidence of Macau consumers fell; the consumers’ confidence toward Macau’s overall economy fell accordingly; employment confidence dropped; commodity price confidence remained basically the same; life standards confidence basically stayed stable; housing purchase confidence fell again; stocks investment confidence dropped slightly. As such, what become natural paths for Macao to improve consumer confidence have been to facilitate adequate diversification of the economy, deepen regional cooperation, reduce the impacts by economic uncertainties caused by external factors, enhance the effect of inflation control, prevent the risk of deflation, provide guidance for the supply-demand equilibrium in the housing market, and encourage the youths to entrepreneur and increase self-value.
Throughout the 31 consecutive quarters since being made available in the 4th quarter of 2008, Macao Consumer Confidence Index continuously indicates that the higher the educational qualification is, the higher the confidence. As such, placing high value on education, reinforcing professional training, and providing incentives for the residents to engage in continuous learning have been the foundation for improvement of Macao consumer confidence.
